Growth Over Climate in Latin America 在拉美 成長先於氣候
By Eduardo Porter
By Eduardo Porter
SANTIAGO, Chile – It can be tempting to understand the recent greenhouse gas negotiations in Lima, Peru, as a clash between developing countries fighting to preserve their vulnerable environments and the rich representatives of multinational capitalism who want to exploit them. Yet environmental advocates and allied policy makers seem to be losing sight of developing countries’ nonnegotiable constraint: They will not agree to grow less.最近在秘魯首都利馬舉行的溫室氣體談判，很容易理解為力保脆弱環境的開發中國家，與試圖利用它們的富有跨國資本主義代表之間的角力。然而環保界人士與結盟的決策者似乎未看見開發中國家一項無法妥協的侷限：不容成長減緩。
Brazil, for one, doesn’t want its environment protected from development. Stunned by an abrupt slowdown in economic growth over the last three years, it urgently wants its environment exploited, whether this means offering cheaper gas to encourage driving or investing trillions in developing its oil reserves.以巴西為例，就不想讓環境免於開發。3年來經濟成長驟減使它驚愕，急於開發它的環境，無論這意味降低油價鼓勵開車，或是投注巨資開發油藏。
“There is a strategic vision in Brazil that it must close the gap that still separates it from rich, developed countries,” said Sérgio Leitão of Greenpeace in São Paulo. “To do that it must burn its natural capital, which is what Americans and Europeans did.”綠色和平組織聖保羅分部的雷陶說：「巴西的戰略思維是必須縮小與已開發富國的差距。因此必須燃燒自然資本，一如昔日的美國與歐洲。」
This attitude has prevailed for decades. In 1972, when the United Nations organized its first environmental summit meeting in Sweden, Brazil was in the midst of an “economic miracle.” It was opening the Trans-Amazonian highway and building a nuclear power plant at Angra dos Reis.這種態度已當道數十年。聯合國1972年在瑞典召開首次環境峰會時，巴西正在締造「經濟奇蹟」，闢建跨亞馬遜公路，並在安格拉杜斯雷斯鎮建核電廠。
Brazil not only saw no purpose in protecting its indigenous forests – it even offered tax incentives to replace them with lucrative Caribbean pine and eucalyptus.巴西不僅認為保護本土森林不具意義，甚至以稅為誘因鼓勵用值錢的加勒比海松樹及尤加利樹予以取代。
Pollution meant progress. Brazil wouldn’t be hoodwinked by conservation proposals that just aimed to keep it in poverty.汙染意味進步。巴西不願被想使它無法脫離貧窮的保育構想欺騙。
Grudgingly, perhaps, rich countries have accepted the notion that poorer countries that emit much less carbon dioxide should be given a break to cut emissions more slowly and should be provided with cash and technology to help them limit their carbon footprint.富國可能勉強接受了以下概念：應該讓二氧化碳排放量少得多的窮國較慢減排，並提供資金技術助其限制碳足跡。
The tension between climate and development crops up all over Latin America. Chile, poor in fossil fuels and rich in wind and sun, might seem like a natural base for a low-carbon economy. Yet Aldo Cerda of the country’s climate exchange says the intensity of Chile’s carbon use is set to grow significantly over the next 15 years.氣候與開發的對立在拉美遍地開花。智利缺少化石燃料，風力與陽光卻很豐富，似為低碳經濟的天然基地。然而智利氣候交易所的塞爾達說，智利用碳強度將於未來15年大增。
The tension is also evident in Peru, where the government watered down environmental regulations over the summer to try to pump up flagging growth.這種對立在秘魯也很明顯。政府為提振疲弱的經濟而於今夏放寬環保法規。
“Some people in the government are trying to put together a forest protection plan,” said Joe Keenan of the Nature Conservancy. “But there are also plans to put new highways into the Amazon.”大自然保護協會的基南說：「政府內部分人士試圖整合一項森林保護計畫。然而也有闢建亞馬遜公路的方案。」
Resolving this tension is proving difficult. Take the report issued this year by the United Nations Sustainable Development Solutions Network. It worked on the assumption that every country would cut annual carbon emissions from energy to only 1.6 tons per person by 2050.這種對立很難化解。以聯合國永續發展方案網絡今年公布的報告為例。它根據的假設是，至2050年時各國來自能源的碳排放量將降到每人每年僅1.6噸。
But Brazil, where emissions from energy rose to almost 2.4 tons per person last year, is unlikely to agree to that anytime soon.然而巴西能源碳排放去年增至每人近2.4噸，近期內不太可能同意這目標。
At the Copenhagen climate summit meeting in 2009, Brazil promised deep cuts to carbon dioxide. Even as mineral and agricultural exports powered an economic boom that brought almost 25 million Brazilians out of poverty, greenhouse gas emissions fell by almost half from 2004 to 2012.巴西在2009年哥本哈根氣候峰會中承諾大幅減少二氧化碳排放。即使在礦產與農產出口促進經濟成長，使近2500萬人脫貧的2004至2012年，溫室氣體排放量仍然減少近半。
When Brazil’s fast-paced economy got stuck last year, concerns about the environment dropped down the priority list. A tax on gasoline was slashed in hopes of priming the economic pump, a decision that removed ethanol’s competitive advantage. A slump in hydroelectric power generation caused by a persistent drought was met by a sustained investment in gas and coal. And greenhouse gas emissions rose by nearly 8 percent in 2013 compared to the year before.巴西經濟的快速成長去年減緩，環保在優先清單上的排名往後挪。當局取消汽油的一項稅目以拉抬經濟，使乙醇失去競爭優勢。持續乾旱以致水力發電量大減，迫使政府持續投資於天然氣與煤。2013年溫室氣體排放比前一年增加近8%。
“Until 2010 we had both high growth and falling emissions,” noted Tasso Azevedo, one of the lead designers of Brazil’s plan to combat deforestation. “Today Brazil is in the worst of worlds, emitting more and generating less growth.”巴西阻止森林消失計畫的主要設計人之一阿茲維多說：「直到2010年，我們一直是擁有高成長，碳排放卻遞減。巴西如今陷入最艱困的處境：排放更多，促成的成長卻更少。」
2014-12-30聯合報/G9版/UNITED
出處: 紐時摘譯：在拉美 成長先於氣候 - 打開聯合報 看見紐約時報 - udn城市 http://city.udn.com/50132/5260114#ixzz3ORdR87z7
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